Two talented horses—one dropping in class, the other ascending—loom as formidable favorites in stakes this Saturday.
The 1 1/8-mile Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar and the 6 1/2-furlong Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park are the two races we'll analyze in this week's edition of Unlocking Winners.
Native Diver (G3)
Three-year-old #3 Nevada Beach wasn't quite up to factoring in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) three weeks ago, finishing seventh by nearly a dozen lengths. But that Classic field was one of the deepest in years, and even in defeat, Nevada Beach earned a respectable 102 Brisnet Speed rating.
Plunging in class for the Native Diver should make Nevada Beach difficult to defeat. Prior to the Breeders' Cup, he conquered a capable field of older horses in the Goodwood (G1), beating 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Full Serrano by 1 1/2 lengths while next-out Tokyo City Cup S. winner Privman finished another 3 1/4 lengths behind in third place. This triumph earned Nevada Beach a 104 Brisnet Speed rating.
Only four other horses have entered the Native Diver. None have won at the stakes level. Only one, #1 Indispensable, has cracked the triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating plateau, but he's 0-for-5 competing in stakes and posted a 93 Brisnet Speed rating in his latest start, a third-place finish in the Ack Ack (G3).
In short, I fully expect Nevada Beach to deliver an easy win in the Native Diver. Indispensable can round out the exacta over #2 Westwood, the distant third-place finisher behind Grade 1 winners Journalism and Baeza in this year's Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Selections
1st: #3 Nevada Beach
2nd: #1 Indispensable
3rd: #2 Westwood
Juvenile Sprint S.
Just last week, I highlighted #6 Local Knowledge as a horse worth watching on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. We'll seen him in action sooner than I expected, as he's one of a half-dozen young runners entered in the Juvenile Sprint.
I was impressed by Local Knowledge's debut against 11 rivals in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland. He got off to a troubled start, but recovered to race in midfield. He advanced around the far turn and rocketed his final quarter-mile in :23.87 to take command and win by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:10.23.
Local Knowledge's performance is even more impressive when you consider the horses he defeated:
* Third-place finisher Gallivant returned to win the Bowman Mill S. in his next start.
* Fourth-place runner Commandment won a Churchill Downs maiden special weight in his next start.
* Sixth-place finisher Mesquite recorded a next-out Churchill Downs maiden special weight win.
Conquering this strong field earned Local Knowledge a 93 Brisnet Speed rating and a 94 Beyer speed figure. None of the other horses entered in the Juvenile Sprint have run faster on either scale.
I expect Local Knowledge will bring his record to a perfect 2-for-2 with an easy win in the Juvenile Sprint. It helps that he has the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher in his corner. According to Brisnet statistics, Velazquez and Pletcher have won at a 27% rate when teaming up together over the last two months.
Who will take second place? I'm siding with #2 Strategic Reserve, a son of capable sprinter/miler Munnings. The chestnut colt is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., a 21% winner at Gulfstream Park this year.
Strategic Reserve impressed in his debut dashing six furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Racing over a sloppy track, he broke a bit slowly, but recovered to lead at every call and dominate by six lengths with a respectable 81 Brisnet Speed rating.
Strategic Reserve didn't fare as well when stretching out over one mile for the Aventura S. at Gulfstream Park. After dueling for the lead for six furlongs, he tired to finish third by eight lengths.
Cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs should prove more suitable for Strategic Reserve. He's been freshened for a couple of months and breezed a bullet half-mile in :47.37 on Nov. 2 at Gulfstream Park, so I'm optimistic he's sitting on a strong performance.
For third place, I'll take #5 Rammaas. He failed to factor in his first two starts dashing five furlongs at Gulfstream but when he stretched out for a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Aug. 9, he led all the way to score by 2 1/4 lengths with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating. He hasn't run since, but a series of fast five-furlong workouts at Gulfstream suggest Rammaas is ready to roll.
Selections
1st: #6 Local Knowledge
2nd: #2 Strategic Reserve
3rd: #5 Rammaas
Now it's your turn! Who do you like this weekend?
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