Two of the feature events on Saturday's stakes-packed card at Aqueduct Racetrack are the $250,000 Remsen (G2) and the $500,000 Cigar Mile H. (G2).
The Remsen, a 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier, has drawn a dozen entries. The Cigar Mile for older horses has attracted a seven-horse field.
Let's analyze both races:
Remsen (G2)
There are many promising horses entered in the Remsen. I can envision at least five different horses visiting the winner's circle. But I'll ultimately side with #6 Courting (9-2) as my slim top choice.
Purchased for $5 million as a yearling, Courting caught my eye in a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last month. Favored at just under 1-5, the chestnut colt set modest fractions of :24.11, :47.94, and 1:12.08 before accelerating his final two furlongs in :11.90 and :12.05 to score by 2 1/2 lengths.
Stamina appears to be a strong suit for Courting, which is unsurprising since he's a son of Curlin out of the Bernardini mare Cavorting, which makes him a full-brother to four-time Grade 1 winner Clairiere. Courting is bred to relish racing 1 1/8 miles around two turns in the Remsen, so I anticipate he'll improve significantly for the hot jockey/trainer duo of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher.
#2 Paladin (3-1) and #9 Renegade (5-1) are other strong contenders. They finished a head apart in a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct, with Renegade crossing the wire first by a head. However, Renegade was disqualified to second place for interfering with Paladin.
Any way you slice it, they both ran well. The final two furlongs were timed in :12.26 and :11.92, and Paladin pulled 5 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Of the pair, I slightly prefer Paladin, who may have more upside for improvement while making his second start and stretching out around two turns. But I wouldn't leave Renegade out of exotic wagers.
#11 Talkin (5-1) might be the forgotten horse. He hasn't started since rallying for second place in Aqueduct's one-mile Champagne (G1) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Talkin benefited from closing into a blazing pace that day, but he'd previously won a seven-furlong maiden special weight over a group including future Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Further Ado, so Talkin's overall form is solid. He does, however, risk a wide trip from post 11.
Selections
1st: Courting
2nd: Paladin
3rd: Talkin
4th: Renegade
Cigar Mile H. (G2)
#6 Phileas Fogg (9-5) looks well-spotted to win the Cigar Mile while cutting back in distance off a long series of efforts racing 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.
Phileas Fogg has competed respectably against strong competition. During the summer, he wired the Suburban (G2) over future Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Antiquarian and multiple Grade 1 winner Locked. Then he ran third (disqualified to seventh) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Antiquarian and 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone. Most recently, he finished second (beaten only three-quarters of a length) to Locked in the Woodward (G2).
The Cigar Mile is a much easier spot on paper. He's facing only two other graded stakes winners: #4 Crazy Mason (7-2), a stretch-running sprinter with a 1-for-6 record in route races, and #7 Bishops Bay (2-1), a three-time Grade 3-winning miler.
Bishops Bay looms as the most logical challenger to Phileas Fogg after winning the Westchester (G3) and Forty Niner (G3) at Aqueduct this year. But he hasn't run as fast as Phileas Fogg in terms of Beyer speed figures and Brisnet Speed ratings.
I anticipate Phileas Fogg will work out a perfect trip in the Cigar Mile. His only previous start in a one-turn mile yielded a 3 3/4-length romp in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct last year. And while Phileas Fogg regularly sets the pace, he's not a need-the-lead type--during the spring, he closed from eight lengths behind a runaway leader to dominate the Excelsior S. at Aqueduct by 5 1/4 lengths.
The latter point is important since one of the other Cigar Mile entrants, #2 Mika (12-1), has dominated his last two starts in gate-to-wire fashion. If Mika sprints to the lead as expected, then Phileas Fogg can track him in second place before taking over and holding off Bishops Bay to prevail.
Selections
1st: Phileas Fogg
2nd: Bishops Bay
3rd: Mika
4th: Crazy Mason
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Remsen and Cigar Mile?
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