Ever since the $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) shifted from Hollywood Park to its current home at Los Alamitos Race Course, the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier has been unkind to pacesetters.
That might come as a surprise since the Los Alamitos Futurity usually draws a small field, which should be conducive to gate-to-wire winners. But guess what? In 11 editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos, only one winner--Wynstock in 2023--managed to lead at any of the first three calls. And even Wynstock wasn't technically a gate-to-wire winner--he set the pace, but was headed in midstretch before battling back to win.
I anticipate this trend will continue in 2025. Saturday's running of the Los Alamitos Futurity has drawn six entries, and there's plenty of pace on paper. The stage appears set for another off-the-pace runner to prevail.
LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE, Saturday, December 13, 2025, Race 8Entries: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Acknowledgemeplz (FL) Armando Ayuso 120 Doug F. O'Neill 7/2 2 2Provenance (KY) Kyle Frey 120 Bob Baffert 5/1 3 3Litmus Test (KY) Juan J. Hernandez 120 Bob Baffert 4/5 4 4Blacksmith (KY) Kazushi Kimura 120 Bob Baffert 5/1 5 5American King (KY) Geovanni Franco 120 Ruben Gomez 30/1 6 6Captivator (KY) Hector Isaac Berrios 120 John W. Sadler 6/1
One of the speedsters is #1 Acknowledgemeplz. He debuted back in June in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita, in which he set the pace before staying on to run second against future Best Pal (G3) winner Desert Gate. Then, after a 4 1/2-month layoff, Acknowledgemeplz returned to action in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita, leading all the way to defeat #4 Blacksmith by a diminishing three-quarters of a length.
Acknowledgemeplz figures to sprint for the lead while breaking from the rail, but can he carry his speed over 1 1/16 miles? His pedigree (by Bucchero out of a Yes It's True mare) is geared toward sprinting, so I'm not certain Acknowledgemeplz has the stamina to run this far. Especially if he hooks up in an early speed duel with #6 Captivator.
Captivator has started twice in $62,500 maiden optional claimers. Both times, he set the pace. In his debut, he dueled through fractions of :22.06 and :44.48 before tiring to finish second. In his second start, he shook loose up front through splits of :22.19 and :44.90 before powering clear to dominate by 10 1/4 lengths.
Captivator wore blinkers in his first two starts, but will race without them in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dropping blinkers could potentially help him relax and sit behind Acknowledgemeplz. But that's not a given, especially since Captivator boasts significantly faster Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings than Acknowledgemeplz. A speed duel may well be in the offing.
#2 Provenance is another potential pace player. A beautifully bred son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Monomoy Girl, Provenance was last seen leading all the way to win a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita.
All this speed should ensure that #3 Litmus Test gets the trip he needs to win the Los Alamitos Futurity.
Litmus Test is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won eight out of 11 editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist debuted during the summer in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, in which he settled no more than 1 1/2 lengths off the pace before rallying to win by three-quarters of a length.
Litmus Test subsequently took on tough competition in three straight Grade 1 races. In the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1), he rated three lengths off the pace and made a mid-race move before weakening to finish fourth. In the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1), he set a slow pace for six furlongs, then tired to finish third by five lengths against probable champion two-year-old male Ted Noffey.
Litmus Test reverted to midpack closing tactics in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and delivered his best performance yet. He dropped 3 1/2 lengths off the early pace before grinding on to finish fourth by 1 3/4 lengths against Ted Noffey. He missed second place by only three-quarters of a length.
The Los Alamitos Futurity field has come up much easier than the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which should help Litmus Test get back to the winner's circle. He's turned in three sharp workouts since the Breeders' Cup, and take note, he's reuniting with hot jockey Juan Hernandez for the first time since his debut. According to Brisnet statistics, Hernandez and Baffert have teamed up to win at a lofty 37% rate together over the last two months.
I expect to see Litmus Test settle behind Acknowledgemeplz, Captivator, and Provenance before launching a winning rally down the long Los Alamitos homestretch.
For second place, I'll try #4 Blacksmith, another Baffert trainee. The son of Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam's Map debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita, in which he was outsprinted early by Acknowledgemeplz before closing to finish second by three-quarters of a length.
One month later, Blacksmith faltered as the 2-5 favorite in a similar 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, dropping toward the back of the pack before passing a few tired rivals to finish fifth. It's unclear what went wrong, but wet weather was wreaking havoc on the Del Mar racing schedule at the time, and Blacksmith worked five furlongs in a 1:00 4/5 only three days beforehand.
Blacksmith bounced out of that defeat with two fast five-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, the latest one on Sunday, six days before the Los Alamitos Futurity. He's bred to appreciate 1 1/16 miles, and I'm optimistic he'll rebound in a big way even while stepping up in class.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Los Alamitos Futurity?
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