Happy New Year!
The first two Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers of 2026 are taking place on Saturday, three days into the new year. They are the $150,000 Jerome S. at Aqueduct Racetrack and the $250,000 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park.
We'll celebrate the brand-new racing season by handicapping both Kentucky Derby preps:
Jerome S.
It looks like we'll have a very small field for the Jerome. Only five horses entered the one-mile race, and one of them--#5 Mailata--is expected to scratch after winning the Parx Future Stars S. on Dec. 30.
Aqueduct Racetrack, Saturday, January 3, 2026, Race 3Entries: Jerome S.
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Enforced Agenda (KY) Flavien Prat 123 George Weaver 9/2 2 2Freedom's Echo (KY) Dexter Haddock 123 Guadalupe Preciado 8/1 3 3My World (KY) Jaime Rodriguez 123 Brad H. Cox 7/5 4 4Balboa (KY) Manuel Franco 123 Brittany T. Russell 8/5 5 5Mailata (PA) Mychel J. Sanchez 123 Robert E. Reid, Jr. 4/1
Among the four remaining entrants, #4 Balboa is the one I want to back. He's the only entrant with experience competing at the graded stakes level. He failed to factor in a couple of Grade 1s when based in California, finishing fifth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah (G1). But he's enjoyed better luck since transferring to the East Coast under the care of trainer Brittany Russell.
Balboa's first start for Russell was impressive: he crushed the six-furlong James F. Lewis III S. by 5 1/4 lengths. Then he stepped up sharply in class and distance for Aqueduct's 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing third in what was arguably a career-best performance.
I liked Balboa's performance in the Remsen. He pressed a solid pace, took over the lead after six furlongs, and fought gamely until the final furlong, when he weakened to finish 3 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Paladin. I view Paladin as a leading contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and Remsen runner-up Renegade is also a promising horse.
I suspect 1 1/8 miles might be farther than Balboa wants to run. Cutting back to a one-turn mile should prove more suitable, since both of Balboa's wins have come in sprints. Couple the distance change with the class drop, and Balboa is a logical win choice.
My second pick is #3 My World. The beautifully bred son of Essential Quality made a great visual impression in the one-mile Nashua S. at Aqueduct. He pressed the pace, took over in the homestretch, and then accelerated through the final furlong to kick away from multiple stakes winner Probably Dreaming and win by 3 1/2 lengths. My World is progressing in the right direction for red-hot trainer Brad Cox, and the fact he's already scored a stakes win over the Jerome track and distance is a positive.
Smarty Jones S.
The nine-horse field set to contest the Smarty Jones is highly competitive. You can make a case for any of the entrants to win the 1 1/16-mile race.
Oaklawn Park, Saturday, January 3, 2026, Race 10Entries: Smarty Jones S.
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Universe (KY) Joel Rosario 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 3/1 2 2Baytown Dreamer (KY) Orlando Bocachica 117 Paul McEntee 30/1 3 3Boca Beach Club (KY) Luis Saez 117 James P. DiVito 4/1 4 4Silent Tactic (KY) Jaime A. Torres 117 Mark E. Casse 12/1 5 5Rancho Santa Fe (KY) Florent Geroux 119 Brad H. Cox 5/2 6 6Oscar's Hope (KY) Ricardo Santana, Jr. 122 Thomas M. Amoss 8/1 7 7Strategic Risk (FL) Javier Castellano 119 Mark E. Casse 6/1 8 8Scar Ship (LA) Ramon A. Vazquez 117 Ricky Courville 12/1 9 9Sleepingonfreedom (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 5/1
Ultimately, I'm going to side with #3 Boca Beach Club (4-1). The son of Omaha Beach is stretching out significantly in distance, but the talent he's shown in two starts sprinting suggests he can handle the challenge.
Boca Beach Club debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Hawthorne Race Course. He broke slowly and raced midfield early on, but down the homestretch he clocked his final furlong in a quick :11.74 to take over and dominate by 5 3/4 lengths.
This win prompted a jump in class for the 5 1/2-furlong Advent S. at Oaklawn. This time, Boca Beach Club settled 5 1/2 lengths behind an opening quarter-mile in :21.89. From there, he launched a sustained rally to finish second behind Dirty Rich, a promising colt who had previously crushed a $150,000 maiden claimer at Del Mar by 5 1/4 lengths over future Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Mr. A. P.
Finishing second in the Advent earned Boca Beach Club an 84 Beyer speed figure. That's the highest number belonging to any horse entered in the Smarty Jones. While it's impossible to say for certain if Boca Beach Club will replicate that number while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles, his pedigree suggests the added distance won't be an issue. He may even improve if the (presumably) slower pace of the Smarty Jones allows him to secure a more forward position.
I'm also encouraged by the fact Boca Beach Club has turned in two fast workouts since the Advent. On Monday, he blazed four furlongs in a bullet :46 1/5 at Oaklawn. His last two works have been much quicker than the ones he posted prior to the Advent, so I'm optimistic Boca Beach Club will show more early speed under hot jockey Luis Saez, who has gone 11-for-48 (23%) to start this Oaklawn meet.
My second choice is the ever-consistent #1 Universe (3-1), who has recorded top-three finishes in the Champagne (G1), Street Sense (G3), and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) while employing a variety of running styles. He's run nearly as fast as Boca Beach Club on the Beyer scale, and I'll be surprised if Universe finishes out of the top three.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Jerome and Smarty Jones?
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