Saturday's $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs isn't the richest or most prestigious Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier taking place this week, but it's drawn some of the most promising horses.
Several of the entrants have shown flashes of talent against quality competition. The Sam F. Davis has produced a dozen Kentucky Derby (G1) starters over the last decade, and I won't be surprised if this year's edition yields another Derby starter or two.
Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, February 7, 2026, Race 11Entries: Sam F. Davis S.
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Confessional (KY) Flavien Prat 122 Brad H. Cox 2/1 2 2Epic Desire (KY) Samy Camacho 122 Todd A. Pletcher 15/1 3 3The Puma (KY) Javier Castellano 122 Gustavo Delgado 6/1 4 4Game for It (KY) Luis R. Rivera, Jr. 122 Chad Summers 20/1 5 5Ocelli (KY) Joseph D. Ramos 122 D. Whitworth Beckman 12/1 6 6Renegade (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 122 Todd A. Pletcher 8/5 7 7Wayne's Law (FL) Marcos Meneses 122 Amador Merei Sanchez 30/1 8 8Max Capacity (KY) Jevian Toledo 122 Richard P. Sillaman 30/1 9 9Dr. Kapur (KY) Samuel Marin 122 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. 5/1
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis seven times. Four of his winners were making their three-year-old debut. That's the case this year for Pletcher's #6 Renegade (8-5), a compelling favorite to take home top honors.
Renegade debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer. While he was no match for runaway winner It's Our Time, who romped by 17 3/4 lengths, Renegade stayed on well to finish third, beaten only half a length for second place.
Stretching out over one mile for his second start triggered a big step forward from Renegade. Facing six rivals in an Aqueduct maiden special weight, he settled near the back of the field before rallying resolutely to cross the wire first by a head over Paladin. However, Renegade bumped Paladin in the drive and was disqualified to second place.
Renegade and Paladin met again in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) on Dec. 6 at Aqueduct. This time the outcome was decisive--Paladin won by two lengths--but Renegade again launched a sharp rally from off the pace and finished second out of 11 runners.
Renegade subsequently shipped from New York to Florida, and only three weeks after the Remsen, he got back on the work tab at Palm Beach Downs. Half a dozen workouts should have him fit for a strong performance in his sophomore debut.
As a son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of the Curlin mare Spice Is Nice, Renegade has the pedigree to improve with maturity, and I don't think we've seen his best yet. I'm optimistic he'll deliver his best performance yet in the Sam F. Davis.
For second place, #1 Confessional (2-1) is a logical choice. He's started twice in seven-furlong sprints, winning a Keeneland maiden special weight by three lengths before running second in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park.
Confessional's allowance run is noteworthy. He was no match for the victorious Nearly, finishing five lengths behind, but Nearly flattered the form by returning to dominate last week's Holy Bull (G3) by 5 3/4 lengths.
Stretching out around two turns suits Confessional from a pedigree perspective, and take note, he's dropping blinkers, which is a 33% winning move for trainer Brad Cox per Brisnet statistics. The fact Confessional is picking up two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat adds to the appeal.
#3 The Puma (6-1) will be an intriguing contender at a bit of a price if he starts in the Sam F. Davis. The son of two-time champion Essential Quality has only run once, finishing second in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Despite breaking slowly, he rushed up right away to get involved in a respectable pace. He held a clear advantage at the top of the stretch, and though he got chased down late by Chief Wallabee, The Puma pulled 9 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a promising 86 Beyer speed figure.
The Puma has the pedigree to stretch out over 1 1/16 miles and can surely challenge for a top-three finish in the Sam F. Davis. However, he's cross-entered in a Saturday maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park and could opt to run there instead.
If The Puma scratches, perhaps #9 Dr. Kapur (5-1) can land a spot in the trifecta. The son of McKinzie caught my eye at Keeneland last fall, when he wired a seven-furlong maiden special weight by 2 3/4 lengths over future Gun Runner S. winner Chip Honcho.
Dr. Kapur made his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall. Unfortunately, he set destructive fractions of :23.35, :46.76, and 1:10.84 on the front end before fading to finish sixth, beaten 11 3/4 lengths in a race largely dominated by late runners. If Dr. Kapur is able to set a more relaxed pace in the Sam F. Davis, he may bounce back with a much-improved performance.
Selections
1st: Renegade
2nd: Confessional
3rd: The Puma
4th: Dr. Kapur
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Sam F. Davis?
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