Three valuable Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers are taking place this weekend: the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack, the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, and the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Let's dive in and handicap all three races:
Gotham (G3)
There are a few proven stakes horse entered in the Gotham, including #1 Balboa (6-1), a speedster who ran respectably when third in the Remsen (G2) and second in the Jerome S. In the Remsen, he was beaten only by next-out Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin and next-out Sam F. Davis S. conqueror Renegade.
But my top choice in the Gotham is a horse who's only run once: #6 Iron Honor (6-5). The Chad Brown trainee caught my eye when he debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Dec. 13 at Aqueduct. After tracking a runaway leader in second place, he finished up nicely down the lane to triumph by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a 99 Brisnet Speed rating and a 95 Beyer speed figure.
The form of Iron Honor's debut win has held up strongly. The runner-up, Crossingthechannel, returned to win his next start in an identical six-furlong maiden special weight. The third-place finisher, #5 Right to Party (8-1), finished nine lengths behind Iron Honor, but won his next start in a one-mile maiden special weight and is entered in the Gotham.
As a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist out of a mare by 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) conqueror Blame, Iron Honor is bred to relish stretching out over one mile. A series of workouts over the slow training track at Payson Park should have Iron Honor fit for a strong sophomore debut, so I expect he'll live up to expectations and triumph in the Gotham.
Fountain of Youth (G2)
To me, the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth is almost inscrutable. So many of the key contenders have questions to answer:
* #7 Napoleon Solo (7-2) hasn't raced since October, when he set blazing pace fractions of :22.53, :44.24, and 1:07.88 on his way to a 6 1/2-length win in the one-mile Champagne (G1). This was a huge run, but the rest of the Champagne form hasn't held up especially well, and stretching out around two turns off the layoff is a meaningful obstacle for Napoleon Solo to overcome.
* #6 Chief Wallabee (9-2) won his debut in a quick seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month, beating next-out Sam F. Davis S. third-place finisher The Puma by 1 1/2 lengths. Chief Wallabee is promising, but he's unproven around two turns, and this is his first start against winners.
* #10 Solitude Dude (5-1) hasn't been challenged in three starts, including decisive wins in the Inaugural S. and Swale S. But he's yet to run farther than seven furlongs, and he's facing several other speed horses, which could compromise his chances of staying 1 1/16 miles.
* #1 Jackson Hole (8-1) has gone 2-for-2 for trainer Todd Pletcher, most notably trouncing a 1 1/16-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. But he's yet to run particularly fast in terms of Beyer speed figures or Brisnet Speed ratings, and horses drawn in inside posts have been struggling over the Gulfstream dirt this meet.
As a result, I'm left with #4 Commandment (2-1) as my top choice. Last time out, he closed from fourth place (three lengths off the pace) to smash the one-mile Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream by 6 3/4 lengths, earning a respectable 91 Beyer that fits well against the Fountain of Youth field.
Commandment's tractability is a positive. There's an abundance of pace in the Fountain of Youth field, so Commandment can settle behind the speed under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. before launching a (hopefully outside) rally to prevail.
Rebel (G2)
The 1 1/16-mile Rebel is another race where logical contenders have questions to answer.
#4 Blackout Time (8-5), runner-up in a deep edition of the Breeders' Futurity (G1), is returning from a five-month layoff and has only five recent workouts to his name. #2 Litmus Test (7-2) is consistent and exits a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), but he finished 2 1/4 lengths behind Blackout Time in the Breeders' Futurity. #6 Strategic Risk (12-1) romped with a favorable pace setup in the Smarty Jones S., but misfired when 10th in the Southwest (G3) last time out. #7 Silent Tactic (9-2) rallied from far back to crush the Southwest by 3 1/4 lengths, but benefited from a contested pace.
I could be talked into supporting any of these four, or even #10 Soldier N Diplomat (10-1), runner-up in the Southwest after sticking much closer to the pace than Silent Tactic. But I'll think outside the box and choose #3 Class President (10-1) on top.
A stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo out of the Quality Road mare Top Quality, Class President debuted in a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, in which he tracked the pace before taking over to defeat next-out winner Easterly by 3 1/4 lengths. Then he cut back and distance and stepped up in class for the seven-furlong Swale S., in which he challenged the above-mentioned Fountain of Youth entrant Solitude Dude before weakening to finish second by 3 3/4 lengths.
Class President fits well against the Rebel field from a Beyer speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating standpoint and should relish stretching out around two turns. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Rebel twice with Malagacy and Magnum Moon, who likewise shipped in off two starts apiece in Florida, so Class President is following a familiar path and seems overpriced at his 10-1 morning-line odds.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in this week's Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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