1. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
The Feb. 14 Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner closed as the favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded March 15, but his 8-1 odds and the narrow price gap to other contenders reflect how wide open bettors view this year's potential Kentucky Derby (G1) field. The reason for the optimism in Paladin is obvious: he's unbeaten in three starts, a dual graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles, and bred for excellence. On course to race at Keeneland in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1), a race that trainer Chad Brown has won three times since 2018.
2. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
The Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner got back to business March 13 with a half-mile breeze in :50 at Payson Park Training Center. Fifteen horses from the Fountain of Youth have gone on to win the Derby, including Sovereignty, who won both races in 2025 during his Horse of the Year campaign. Trainer Brad Cox is 1-0-2 with 12 starters in the Derby, taking the Run for the Roses in 2021 with Mandaloun , who was elevated to second to first upon the disqualification of the Medina Spirit for a medication violation.
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3. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
A showdown between this colt, Commandment, and others looms at Gulfstream Park in the March 28 Florida Derby (G1), a race that has produced more Derby winners (26) than any other prep. Nearly, who kept a busy schedule early in the Gulfstream meet highlighted by a win in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3), was kept out of the Fountain of Youth by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, to leave the colt fresh for the Florida Derby and the Derby five weeks later. He has prepped some of his eight Florida Derby winners similarly, including Fierceness (third in the 2024 Holy Bull) and Audible (victorious in the 2018 Holy Bull).
4. Chief Wallabee
Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott
Constitution —A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)
His close runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his second career start left many encouraged for what the future holds. Like Paladin, he was 8-1 in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager, though he was a slightly higher price and the second choice. It's apparent to many that this colt has significant upside, and inexperience doesn't seem to be the disadvantage in the Derby that it once was. Since the turn of the century, Big Brown (2008), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023) captured the Derby with just three prior starts. Chief Wallabee is expected to have his third start in the Florida Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, a dual Kentucky Derby winner.
5. Class President
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC/Pletcher
Uncle Mo—Top Quality, by Quality Road
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
He did not run like a horse untested at a route in the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2). Headed in midstretch, he battled back to win in a brave effort. Class President's lone defeat in three starts came in the 7-furlong Swale Stakes behind Solitude Dude, and that 3-year-old is likely the best sophomore sprinter in South Florida. After traveling all the way from Florida to Arkansas for the Rebel, look for Pletcher to give him a bit more time for his next start and run him in early April, either in the Blue Grass or the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. The Blue Grass has the appeal of being a grade 1.
6. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
Respect his consistency and constitution. First or second in all five of his starts, he is scheduled to compete in all the major 3-year-old Kentucky Derby preps at Oaklawn Park this year, capped by the March 28 Arkansas Derby (G1). Though outgamed by Class President in the Rebel, he spotted that rival weight and finished well, just as he had in winning the Southwest Stakes (G3) with powerful punch. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has won the other legs of the Triple Crown—the 2019 Preakness Stakes (G1) with War of Will and the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) with Sir Winston —and Silent Tactic provides him with a solid chance in pursuit of an elusive Derby victory.
7. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Pletcher
Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Though Pletcher is not expected to send Class President back to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby, look for him to be in competition in Arkansas with this colt. The spacing from Renegade's Feb. 7 victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs suits for a trip from Florida, where he has trained steadily. The Sam F. Davis has not been as influential a prep race as other 3-year-old stakes through the years, but this year's field was legit, as reflected by third-place The Puma taking the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Toss in this colt's strong performances vs. Paladin from last year, and all those elements add up to him being a leading Derby prospect.
8. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Cox
Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
Those who believe in horses for courses will view him as a Blue Grass contender at Keeneland. He was sensational against maidens over that main track last fall, winning by 20 lengths and posting a career-best speed figure. His two subsequent efforts, while still promising, haven't been quite on the same level, admittedly against better. He was a workmanlike winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last fall at Churchill Downs and was second in the Tampa Bay Derby when having a better trip than both the first- and third-place finishers. He would appear to have the potential to improve in his second outing of the year.
9. The Puma
Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado
Essential Quality —Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY)
His trip in the Tampa Bay Derby was difficult, as he was hung wide on both turns after starting from a poor draw, and yet he still won, edging clear late by three-quarters of a length. Though his final time was moderate, it ranked solidly on performance figures that account for ground loss. Many of his connections—trainer Gustavo Delgado, jockey Javier Castellano, and some of the colt's ownership—had success in the Derby a few years ago with the lightly raced Mage . They're assured of having enough qualifying points to make the race this year with the Tampa Bay Derby winner.
10. Potente
Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and Speedway Stables have been highly successful together, winning grade 1s with horses such as Collected , Corniche , and Roadster . The latter won the 2019 Santa Anita Derby (G1), a race that could be on the itinerary for Potente after his victory in the March 7 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park to improve to 2-for-2. It seems the logical next spot, though Baffert always likes to keep his options open and will shuffle his lineup and who he runs based on how his 3-year-olds are training.
11. Reagan's Honor
Owner/Trainer: West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo, and Gabriel Duignan/Cherie DeVaux
Honor A. P. —Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: David Ingordo and Jerome S. Moss (KY)
Without any Derby points, how he fares in the Blue Grass will dictate whether the Derby is in play or not. A top-two finish will be necessary to comfortably secure sufficient qualifying points to make the starting gate, and there are some very good horses pointed to the Blue Grass, among them top-ranked Paladin. Reagan's Honor ran quickly in a first-level allowance company at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 19, though with the benefit of a nice trip up front. He is not as stoutly built as others, but he is gifted at sustaining his speed over a route. His two victories from three career starts have been in races around two turns in Louisiana.
12. Cherokee Nation
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Bashor Racing, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Baffert
Not This Time—Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie
Breeder: Fortune Farms, William and Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY)
He was a victim of poor racing luck in several of his first five starts, some of them in stakes. Then things finally went his way in outing No. 6, and he showed his potential in romping by 10 lengths in a blazing-fast maiden race at Santa Anita Feb. 27. If drawn well in a longer race such as the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, he should have ample time to secure his preferred position up near the pace in the clear. With the previously ranked Canaletto expected to race next at Keeneland in the April 11 Lexington Stakes (G3)—a lesser points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby—that lightly raced colt is looking less likely to be pointed to the Derby, freeing a space in the Derby Dozen lineup for Cherokee Nation, who beats out Incredibolt, Chip Honcho, and others for the final spot.
