The $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park and the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots comprise this week's action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Competitive fields have entered the two races. Here's how I see them unfolding:
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
With a blend of dirt, turf, and synthetic performers entered in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, identifying the most likely winner of the 1 1/8-mile Tapeta test isn't easy. How can we predict with accuracy which of the dirt and turf horses will appreciate switching to Tapeta?
That's a tough question. But maybe we don't have to answer it with precision. Since Turfway switched from Polytrack to Tapeta, five editions of the Jeff Ruby have produced reasonably predictable results. Two were won by the favorite. Another saw the second choice beat the favorite in a chalky exacta. A fourth edition saw the 7-1 fourth choice prevail in an 11-horse field.
That's why I'm going to side with a horse who I believe is a class standout in this year's Jeff Ruby field: #11 Stark Contrast (5-2). I won't worry about the fact he's a turf horse who has yet to race over a synthetic track. He's in good company: the two favorites to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Tapeta, Endlessly and Tiz the Bomb, were likewise best known for their turf prowess.
Stark Contrast has done little wrong in four starts on turf, all racing one mile in California. First he won a maiden special weight, charging hard from seven lengths off the pace to defeat future Pasadena S. runner-up and Jeff Ruby entrant #6 Medici (6-1) by one length. Then he took the Zuma Beach (G3) by the same margin.
Stark Contrast ended 2026 with a fine try in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), racing closer than most to a quick pace before finishing strongly to run second by three-quarters of a length against international challenger and heavy favorite Gstaad.
Picking up where he left off, Stark Contrast ran as well as ever in the Eddie Logan S. to start 2026. The pace was slow, so Stark Contrast showed a new dimension pressing the leader before finishing fast (final quarter-mile in :23.04) to score by 2 1/4 lengths.
Stark Contrast's strong finishing speed bodes well for success over the Turfway Tapeta, which often favors late runners. I'm confident he'll deliver a stretch-running win for the hot jockey/trainer combination of Kazushi Kimura and Michael McCarthy, leaving John Battaglia Memorial S. runner-up #2 Fulleffort (7-2) and flashy Gulfstream Park debut winner #8 Chaos Agent (10-1) to battle for the minor awards.
Louisiana Derby (G2)
There are plenty of viable contenders to consider in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Many bettors will opt for #3 Chip Honcho (3-1), winner of the one-mile Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds. Last time out, he set an honest pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) over this track before getting caught in the final strides by current Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite Paladin.
In the Risen Star, Chip Honcho pulled 5 1/2 lengths clear of third-place finisher #5 Golden Tempo (7-2). But two starts back, in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, Golden Tempo stormed home on top by three-quarters of a length while Chip Honcho finished fourth. I believe Golden Tempo can reclaim supremacy in the Louisiana Derby.
Thus far, Golden Tempo has been a pure deep closer without any tactical speed. But he's adding blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, which could potentially sharpen his speed. The Daily Racing Form reported Golden Tempo worked a swift half-mile in :47 4/5 while wearing blinkers on Feb. 27, and that marked his sharpest workout--at least from a time perspective--since November.
I'm optimistic Golden Tempo will stay closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby than in his previous three starts, giving him a chance to chase down Chip Honcho in the long Fair Grounds homestretch. He's my top choice to win.
#7 Blacksmith (6-1), runner-up in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), is another logical contender while shipping in from California for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. He exits a 3 3/4-length maiden special weight win, his first victory from five starts, and is progressing in the right direction.
#9 Emerging Market (6-1) is intriguing too; he earned an excellent 97 Beyer speed figure when debuting victorious in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs last month. But the close runner-up, Powershift, failed to flatter the form when finishing a distant sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) two weeks ago, so I don't fully trust Emerging Market to repeat his 97 while stepping up in class and distance for the Louisiana Derby.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in this week's Kentucky Derby preps?
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