Recent analysis of the recurring impact of :12 furlongs on the Kentucky Derby (G1) named five horses that made the cut this year. Now, we zero in on some prominent contenders that didn't.
My research shows an advantage lies with Kentucky Derby (G1) horses that have run their final preps averaging within one second of :12 per furlong at the calls. This year's crop is Fulleffort, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, Incredibolt, So Happy, as well as Intrepido, who also fits the bill after running four 12s until he ran out of gas in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade and Florida Derby 1-2-3 finishers Commandment, The Puma, and Chief Wallabee hit "12s" only six times from a total of 20 calls. All of them trended on the slow side early and finished fast.
READ: 12-Second Furlongs Portend Kentucky Derby Success
Regenade, the presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite, won the Arkansas Derby with 12s at only the first two of five calls (:23.90, :48.35, 1:13.13, 1:37.86, and 1:49.70). His internals for the mile showing him slowing a bit as the race progressed though a mile (:23.90, :24.45, :24.78, and :24.73), and then he exploded with an :11.84 final furlong that concluded his :36.57 finish.
In the Florida Derby (G1), Wayne's Law at 46-1 odds was allowed to set pedestrian opening fractions of :24.10 and :48.80 in a six-horse field, thus setting up a slow early race flow and initial furlongs a bit slower than I expected.
However, Commandment's internal fractions in his third and fourth quarter-miles (:24.27, :24.21) were faster than each of his first two quarter-miles (:24.55, :24.65). He finished the final eighth in :12:31, part of a :36.52 time over the final three furlongs (source: Equibase GPS).
The Puma also ran his third and fourth quarter-miles faster than his first two (:24.52, :24.63, :23.96, and :24.21) and finished in :36.89, including the final furlong in :12.68. Chief Wallabee was beaten only a half-length after similar fractions and a :36.89 finish preceded by what jockey Junior Alvarado said was an absence of a mild kick once the colt was turned loose.
Presumably, in a larger field on the first Saturday in May, we will see more early speed from those three, reducing the chance of traffic trouble. Commandment and Chief Wallabee ran the first half-mile of the Fountain of Youth Stakes in :47.56 and :47.49, respectively; The Puma got the same distance in :47.13 in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
However, Renegade may be a different story. He ran moderate initial fractions in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes (:24.69, :48.96, 1:13.11, 1:37.57), but he got the final three furlongs in :36.85 and the last eighth-mile in :11.97 en route to a finish in 1:43.54.
Horses that might not have to deal with traffic were the top two finishers in the Louisiana Derby (G2). They started strong and finished strong.
Emerging Market ran his first two quarter-miles in :22.99 and :46.81, (remaining fractions 1:11.15, 1:36.54, 1:48.89, and 1:55.18), and Pavlovian started out in :22.65 and :46.23 (remaining fractions 1:10.85, 1:36.47, 1:48.79, and 1:55.21). Despite these fairly quick early fractions, winner Emerging Market ran the last three furlongs in an impressive :37.51 and the final eighth in :12.51, while runner-up Pavlovian finished just about as well: :37.75 and :12.63.
