Many years ago—and even not so many years ago—it was common for top 3-year-olds to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby (G1) led into the Preakness Stakes (G1) two weeks later, with the Belmont Stakes (G1) following three weeks after that.
The timing of the three races remains unchanged, but the same can't be said of the racing campaigns compiled by elite 3-year-olds. It's becoming rare for horses to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown, and even Kentucky Derby winners—once considered virtually certain to start in the Preakness—are now passing on the second leg of the Triple Crown.
As a result, handicapping the Preakness and Belmont has become as much about handicapping racing schedules as horses. Which types of horses are most likely to win the second and third legs of the Triple Crown? Are some prep approaches more productive than others, and is this changing over time?
Let's crunch some numbers and determine which racing schedules are most likely to produce Preakness and Belmont winners.
Preakness Stakes
Preakness starters fall into two broad categories: those who competed two weeks earlier in the Kentucky Derby, and those who followed any other path to the Preakness.
Between 2000 and 2016, 14 out of 17 Preakness winners (82%) exited the Kentucky Derby. But since 2017, only three out of nine Preakness winners (33%) came out of the Derby, leaving six wins for newcomers.
The key question is: Has the racing landscape shifted in such a way that Kentucky Derby alumni are no longer as effective when wheeling back in two weeks for the Preakness? Or are there simply fewer of them starting in the Preakness, leaving more opportunities for newcomers to shine?
The two possibilities may be related—perhaps fewer Kentucky Derby horses target the Preakness because they've become more likely to struggle while running back in two weeks. But let's see what the data says.
First, we'll compare the performances of Kentucky Derby alumni and newcomers in the Preakness since 2000 (excluding the unusual COVID-19 Preakness of 2020). Then we'll analyze the data since 2021, with 2021 marking the first Triple Crown contested since Lasix was eliminated from graded stakes and most 2-year-old races.
Since 2000
| Starts | Wins | Top 3s | |
| Derby starters | 108 | 17 (15.7%) | 46 (42.6%) |
| Newcomers | 157 | 8 (5.1%) | 29 (18.5%) |
Since 2021
| Starts | Wins | Top 3s | |
| Derby starters | 13 | 1 (7.7%) | 8 (61.5%) |
| Newcomers | 30 | 4 (13.3%) | 7 (23.3%) |
Since 2000, Kentucky Derby alumni have outperformed newcomers in the Preakness. Their 15.7% win rate is about 3.1 times higher than the 5.1% win rate compiled by newcomers, and their percentage of in-the-money finishes (42.6%) is about 2.3 times higher.
The tables have turned since 2021, with newcomers compiling a 13.3% win rate higher than the 7.7% win rate from Kentucky Derby starters. But the sample size is small, and the lofty percentage of in-the-money finishes compiled by Derby alums (61.5%) suggests they're still performing strongly. Should a Derby starter win the 2026 Preakness, they'll be back on top of the newcomers from a win percentage standpoint.
The main takeaway? There's no strong evidence to suggest Kentucky Derby starters are less capable of winning the Preakness than they were in the 2000s or 2010s. But because they attempt the feat less often than in the past (with many of the top Derby finishers choosing to skip the Preakness), they're less likely to visit the Preakness winner's circle in any given year.
It's worth noting that two of the eight newcomers who have won the Preakness since 2000 (Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Seize the Grey in 2024) ran back 15 days and 14 days, respectively, after their previous race. This means 19 out of 25 Preakness winners since 2000 (excluding 2020) entered off roughly two weeks of rest. The quick turnaround has been the winning strategy 72% of the time.
Belmont Stakes
It's become increasingly common for high-profile Kentucky Derby horses to skip the Preakness and target the Belmont Stakes. This strategy has produced more Belmont winners than any other prep approach since 2000.
But how many horses follow this path compared to other approaches? Do horses who compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown compile similar win and in-the-money percentages? And how do newcomers to the Triple Crown fare against the Derby and Preakness alums?
To answer these questions, we'll analyze the performances of horses in four different categories:
- Kentucky Derby starters who skipped the Preakness.
- Horses that competed in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
- Preakness starters who didn't compete in the Kentucky Derby.
- Newcomers who skipped the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
Again, we'll compare their records since 2000 (excluding 2020) and since 2021, to capture how trends have shifted in recent years.
Since 2000
| Starts | Wins | Top 3s | |
| Derby only | 88 | 13 (14.8%) | 35 (39.8%) |
| Derby & Preakness | 37 | 4 (10.8%) | 15 (40.5%) |
| Preakness only | 28 | 0 (0.0%) | 3 (10.7%) |
| Newcomers | 96 | 8 (8.3%) | 22 (22.9%) |
Since 2021
| Starts | Wins | Top 3s | |
| Derby only | 17 | 4 (23.5%) | 8 (47.1%) |
| Derby & Preakness | 2 | 0 (0.0%) | 1 (50.0%) |
| Preakness only | 9 | 0 (0.0%) | 2 (22.2%) |
| Newcomers | 15 | 1 (6.7%) | 4 (26.7%) |
Since 2000, Kentucky Derby starters who skip the Preakness to target the Belmont have posted 13 wins in the third jewel of the Triple Crown. Their 14.8% win rate is the highest of the four categories, and it's nearly 1.8 times higher than the 8.3% win rate compiled by newcomers, even though the two categories have produced similar numbers of starters.
Newcomers do win the Belmont with some regularity; they've recorded eight wins since 2000. But they're meaningfully less likely to prevail than Kentucky Derby alumni.
The dominance of the Derby-to-Belmont pathway has grown stronger since 2021. Their win percentage has ballooned to 23.5%, far exceeding any other category, and their in-the-money percentage has swelled to 47.1%.
However, horses that compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown have also done well. They've recorded four Belmont wins since 2000. While their 10.8% win rate since 2000 is a bit lower, their 40.5% in-the-money rate during the same time frame stacks up well against the 39.8% tally compiled by Derby-to-Belmont horses.
Since 2021, only two horses have contested all three legs of the Triple Crown. One (Journalism) finished second in the Belmont, giving the category a 50.0% in-the-money rate.
The main category to avoid is horses that joined the Triple Crown via the Preakness. Horses that skipped the Derby before contesting the Preakness have gone 0-for-28 in the Belmont since 2000, and 0-for-9 since 2021.
Takeaways
In the Preakness, it still pays to back Kentucky Derby starters. While their win percentage has dropped in recent years, their percentage of in-the-money finishes remains strong, so Derby horses are must-use contenders in exacta and trifecta tickets.
In the Belmont, you want to bet Kentucky Derby starters, with a slight preference for those who skipped the Preakness over those who raced in the second jewel. Newcomers can't be dismissed from consideration, but avoid betting Preakness alums who skipped the Derby—they haven't won a single Belmont since 2000.
