Lovcen ticks enough boxes in the runup to the 93rd running of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1T) May 31 at Tokyo Racecourse to make him the likely favorite in a race where favorites have done well recently.
Lovcen did not make his first start until last Nov. 9. When he won that 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4 miles) debut at Kyoto Racecourse, his connections quickly made up for lost time.
Sent directly to the 2,000-meter Hopeful Stakes (G1T) Dec. 27 at Nakayama, he responded with another win, altering course sharply in the stretch to escape traffic before unleashing a powerful late burst of energy.
"We have a lot to look forward to in his future starts," jockey Kohei Matsuyama said after that effort.
Lovcen finished third in his 3-year-old debut, the Kyodo News Hai (G3T), won by Realize Sirius, but got his revenge in the first leg of Japan's Triple Crown, the Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas, G1T). Sent right to the front, he led throughout and won by three-quarters of a length in course-record time of 1:56.5 for 2,000 meters with Realize Sirius second.
In the Derby, Lovcen will have to add another 400 meters (about 2 furlongs) to his longest previous effort, but trainer Haruki Sugiyama said he's not concerned.
"He's quite muscular, but from his bloodline, I don't think he'll have a problem," Sugiyama said.
That bloodline is another box checked. Lovcen's sire is World Premier, whose two grade 1 wins came at 3,000 meters (about 1 7/8 miles) and 3,200 meters (about 2 miles). World Premier's sire, Deep Impact, and grandsire, Sunday Silence, need no introduction. This is World Premier's first 3-year-old crop.
Another box checked: Recent race history. In the past 10 runnings of the Derby, the favorite has won three times, finished second three times, and twice was third. The only double-digit odds winner in that period was Roger Barows in 2019. Granted, he sort of balanced the scales all by himself by outrunning odds of 93-1.
A potential negative came with the barrier draw. Statistics indicate inside gates have a slight advantage in the Derby, and Lovcen will commence from the No. 17 slot with only a single runner to his outside.
Three-year-olds going 2,400 meters for the first time is never a foregone conclusion, of course, and Lovcen will have no shortage of company in his bid to advance down the Triple Crown trail.
Realize Sirius is back for another try, and the connections of the Poetic Flair colt argue the wide Tokyo Racecourse turf and sweeping turns will prevent him from getting squeezed among rivals as he was in the Satsuki Sho.
His camp believes Poetic Flair struggled slightly on Nakayama's tighter turns, leading them to expect a much stronger performance on the roomier Tokyo racecourse.
Poetic Flair, another whose first crop has just reached classic age, was a stone miler during his career in England, France and Ireland, venturing farther only once to finish third in the 2021 Irish Champion Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles.
"The distance is new to him," trainer Takahisa Tezuka said. "But he did well in the Satsuki Sho, and although his sire was a miler, his damn has Stay Gold blood in her, so I think he can handle the distance, especially among peers."
Congestus enters the Derby undefeated after three starts, the latest a victory in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2T)
"The Kyoto Shimbun Hai was a difficult race," trainer Tomokazu Takano said. "The competition was strong, but he won. Even though it wasn't a perfect race, the fact that he won is evidence of his ability."
Similar to the Hong Kong Derby, Kentucky Derby (G1), Deutsches Derby (G1), and others, including the original at Epsom Downs, the Tokyo Yushun may lack international allure. But it's the race locals covet.
"The Derby has been my dream since I was a child," said Matsuyama, who has won almost every other major Japanese race but still lacks a Derby win. "I think it's the dream of every horseman."
