Saturday's 158th running of the historic Belmont (G1) is taking place at Saratoga Race Course over a 1 1/4-mile distance shorter than it's typical 1 1/2 miles.
Nevertheless, the third leg of the Triple Crown remains a stellar race. The field for the 2026 edition is packed with talented horses, including the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Let's dig in and handicap the race in horse-by-horse fashion:
#1 Vitruvian Man (30-1): As a son of Vino Rosso out of a mare by Bernardini, Vitruvian Man is bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles. But in his lone previous try at the Grade 1 level, he finished third by 9 1/2 lengths in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The top two finishers, So Happy and Potente, returned to finish ninth and 12th in the Kentucky Derby, so the Belmont is shaping up as a fierce test for Vitruvian Man. Cracking the top four could be difficult.
#2 Powershift (12-1): There isn't much pace in this Belmont field, and Powershift could take advantage. He debuted in a two-turn maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs and ran a close second against next-out Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market. Then--following a misfire in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)--he won a fast 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 3/4 lengths. Powershift has pace-pressing speed and may even set the pace while breaking from post 2 in the Belmont. Beyer speed figures suggest he's talented enough to vie for a top-three finish.
#3 Chief Wallabee (3-1): After finishing second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2), third by half a length in the Florida Derby (G1), and fourth by three lengths in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Chief Wallabee clearly ranks among the best three-year-olds in training. But his Beyers have decreased in his last couple of starts, and he'll need some luck to turn the tables on Kentucky Derby 1-2 finishers Golden Tempo and Renegade.
#4 Renegade (2-1): A dominant winner of the Sam F. Davis S. and Arkansas Derby (G1) during the first quarter of 2026, Renegade entered the Kentucky Derby as a primary win contender, but unfortunately drew the dreaded rail post. He bumped with rivals repeatedly and significantly in the early stages of the race and wound up falling 12 1/4 lengths off the pace--much farther behind than usual. Nevertheless, he recovered to launch a strong homestretch rally, running his final quarter-mile in a swift :24.68 to finish second by a neck.
Although Renegade is most assuredly a late runner, he doesn't usually drop as far off the pace as Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo. His slightly superior tactical speed could come in handy in this largely paceless Belmont. If Renegade stays closer to a modest pace than Golden Tempo, he can use the eye-catching turn-of-foot he's displayed in all three of his starts this year to get the jump on Golden Tempo and reverse the outcome of the Kentucky Derby.
Renegade is my top choice to win the Belmont.
#5 Ottinho (20-1): Ottinho competed respectably on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing third in the Withers S. and second in the Blue Grass (G1). But he was beaten by double-digit margins in both races, and he'll need to improve from a Beyer standpoint to challenge for a top-four finish against this tough Belmont field.
#6 Growth Equity (12-1): One of few horses in this Belmont field with early speed, Growth Equity exits a two-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3). But can he stretch out over 1 1/4 miles for the Belmont? His pedigree suggests he might be more comfortable running shorter than classic distances. Tackling another furlong while simultaneously taking a big step up in class could complicate Growth Equity's path to the winner's circle.
#7 Commandment (6-1): Commandment was my top choice in the Kentucky Derby after rattling off four straight wins. In both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, he defeated Chief Wallabee by narrow margins. But Commandment came up short on the first Saturday in May, rallying only mildly from 14th place to finish seventh. He flattened out down the homestretch after getting squeezed between rivals and regressed meaningfully on the Beyer speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating scales. A rebound isn't out of the question, but I wonder if Commandment's form is starting to slip after a busy campaign.
#8 Emerging Market (6-1): After winning his debut in hard-fought fashion over Powershift, Emerging Market successfully stepped up in class and distance to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) by a head, with future Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo a length back in third place. Emerging Market failed to replicate that form on the first Saturday in May, tiring to finish tenth, but it's possible he raced too close to a quick early pace. Emerging Market may benefit from the lack of speed in this Belmont field--I can envision him sticking closer to the pace than usual before staying on for a top-four finish.
#9 Golden Tempo (9-2): A pure deep closer, Golden Tempo rallied from last place to win the Kentucky Derby by a neck over Renegade. A quick pace helped his chances, but Golden Tempo was full of run down the lane, clocking his final quarter-mile in :24.44 while gaining six lengths through the final furlong alone. The lack of pace in this Belmont field could prove detrimental to Golden Tempo, since he's never been closer than 8 1/2 lengths to the lead after the opening half-mile of a route race, but I expect to see him closing resolutely down the Saratoga homestretch. Even with an unfavorable setup, I think Golden Tempo will be tough to keep out of the top three.
Selections
1st: Renegade
2nd: Powershift
3rd: Golden Tempo
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 158th Belmont Stakes?
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