In watching Burnham Square and Deterministic reel off victories in major turf stakes throughout North America this season, these two runners with different distance preferences stoked hopes for a home sweep of the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) and Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) for the first time in seven years.
Well aware that tougher international competition would arrive for each in the summer and late fall, I certainly entertained the thought. Well late summer is here and those runners from overseas have arrived to take on the two accomplished sons of Liam's Map .
For Burnham Square, the top international runners proved too much—at least on the day of Sept. 5 at Kentucky Downs. Entered in the 1 1/2-mile Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (G2T) off a four-race win streak that included a clear victory in the Arlington Million Stakes (G1T) in his previous race, Burnham Square struggled to a seventh-place finish, with the Sir Mark Prescott-trained mare Tiffany leading home a trifecta of European-based runners that included last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner Ethical Diamond in second.
To the victors go the spoils, but this race did not appear to be Burnham Square being outclassed so much as not running his race. We'll see, but his connections believe Burnham Square did not handle the day's heat, which reached a high of 100 degrees.
Burnham Square's regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. said the Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred never felt like the horse who secured grade 1 wins on dirt and turf and had never finished worse than second in six previous turf races.
"He's always really energetic (in the warmup), but after we came back, he wasn't sweating a whole lot," Hernandez said. "I think the heat got to him. Being so hot had a lot to do with it today. We discussed in the past that he's always been able to make a good half-mile run and today he didn't do that. He wasn't his normal self today."
So we'll hold out hope that Burnham Square will deliver his best on a later date, hopefully one that doesn't approach triple digits in temperature and sauna-level humidity.
Part two of this story will take better shape Sept. 12 when Deterministic puts his six-race win streak—a stretch that includes four grade 1 wins—on the line in the Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1T). The field includes last year's race winner, Godolphin homebred Notable Speech, who followed that effort with a win in the Breeders' Cup Mile to land champion turf male honors.
We could have seen this showdown a year ago, but Deterministic, who is trained by Miguel Clement for owners St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable, needed time off after victories in the Fort Marcy (G2T), Manhattan (G1T), and Fourstardave (G1T) stakes in New York. He enters this year's Woodbine Mile off victories in those same three races, and jockey Kendrick Carmouche, who was aboard for all of those wins, thinks his horse is still improving as he moves into this showdown two years in the making.
"We get along together," said Carmouche, who has landed four of his six career grade 1 wins on Deterministic. "We pretty much have the same personality. He comes out nice, cool, calm, and collected around the paddock, but when he's going around the track, he's all about business and wanting to win.
"You just move your hands and he moves for you. He's one of them—he's a push-button horse. You don't have to do much."
Equibase Speed Figures are in agreement with Carmouche's assessment. Deterministic has taken a jump from last year when his top number was 117 to this year, with a top figure of 120. In his past two races, he has earned the top two figures of his career.
That said, Notable Speech likely has improved as well. He had not won in his first four starts of 2025 in Europe before sweeping his grade 1 assignments in North America. This year, he enters the Woodbine Mile with two group 1 wins in Europe already under his belt this season.
The days and weeks ahead will see plenty of opportunities for new runners to emerge and I still reserve hope of a sweep of the Mile and Turf by North American-based runners for the first time since 2019 when the Chad Brown-trained Uni (Mile) and Bricks and Mortar (Turf) did the trick.
