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Handicapping

Betting On Speed to Upset the Jockey Club Gold Cup

J. Keeler Johnson handicaps the 2026 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park.

Historic Belmont Park reopens on Friday with an exciting card highlighted by the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

The lineup for the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) qualifier is led by #7 Forever Young (3-5), a Japanese sensation who has traveled the globe winning major races in Japan, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and the United States.

Entries: Jockey Club Gold Cup S. (G1)

Belmont Park, Friday, September 18, 2026, Race 5

  • Grade I
  • 1 1/4m
  • Dirt
  • $1,000,000
  • 3 yo's & up
  • 4:14 PM (local)
PPHorseJockeyWgtTrainerM/L
11Baeza (KY)Keeneland Sales GraduateJunior Alvarado126William I. Mott9/2
22Stars and Stripes (KY)Keeneland Sales GraduateJohn R. Velazquez126William I. Mott15/1
33Chunk of Gold (KY)Jaime A. Torres126Ethan W. West12/1
44Phileas Fogg (KY)Kendrick Carmouche126Gustavo Rodriguez4/1
55Banishing (KY)Joel Rosario126David Jacobson12/1
66Render Judgment (KY)Manuel Franco126Kenneth G. McPeek20/1
77Forever Young (JPN)Ryusei Sakai126Yoshito Yahagi3/5

Forever Young's racing record is stellar. He's compiled a 15-11-1-3 lifetime tally with earnings of $31,758,590--far and away the most of any horse who has competed in North America. He's won the last two editions of the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) over top-tier rivals like Romantic Warrior and Nysos, and last fall he took the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on U.S. soil by half a length over champions Sierra Leone and Fierceness.

It's easy to understand why Forever Young is an odds-on favorite to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But is he unbeatable? Or is an upset in the offing?

There are a couple of reasons to hesitate in backing Forever Young at a short price. First off, he hasn't raced since March 28, when he finished second in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Forever Young is using the Jockey Club Gold Cup as a steppingstone to defending his Breeders' Cup Classic title, and it's possible he'll be short of his absolute best off the layoff.

Secondly, Forever Young is facing a formidable rival in the form of #4 Phileas Fogg (4-1), and it appears the complexion of the Jockey Club Gold Cup field could lend Phileas Fogg an advantage.

Phileas Fogg is a force to reckon with on his best day. Early speed is his strong suit, and he put his speed to good use throughout 2025. He led all the way to win the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) by a head over future 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Antiquarian, and he tried hard against multiple Grade 1 winner Locked in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward (G2), finishing second by three-quarters of a length after leading by daylight for much of the race.

Phileas Fogg tired in his first start of 2026, finishing last of three runners in the one-mile Stymie S. at Aqueduct. But two months later, he bounced back to wire a 1 1/8-mile $110,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct by 5 3/4 lengths over Warp Nine, who returned to win his next start at the same class level at Saratoga.

Most recently, Phileas Fogg successfully defended his Suburban title. Racing 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, he ran out of his skin and delivered a career-best performance. After waltzing along on the lead through splits of :23.93, :48.59, and 1:12.57, Phileas Fogg drew off to defeat 2025 Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show by 10 lengths. Other beaten runners included Antiquarian, who came back to run third in the Whitney (G1), and Original Sin, subsequently runner-up in the Pacific Classic (G1).

Can Phileas Fogg repeat his Suburban effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup? There's a good chance he will. #3 Chunk of Gold (12-1) and #5 Banishing (12-1), two other potential pace players, are expected to scratch. This will leave the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a five-horse field in which Phileas Fogg is the only frontrunner.

Forever Young has tactical speed, but pressing a talented speedster like Phileas Fogg while returning from a layoff could be a difficult assignment. Since the pace scenario favors Phileas Fogg, I'm betting we'll see an upset in the first Grade 1 race at the new Belmont Park.

#1 Baeza (9-2) is an obvious contender to round out the top three. He ranked among the leading three-year-olds of 2025 after winning the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and recording top-three finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

This year, Baeza has developed a tendency to break slowly from the starting gate, which has arguably cost him victory a time or two. Nevertheless, he's finished second in the Stephen Foster (G1), third in the Alysheba (G2), and fourth in the Whitney (G1) while facing tough competition. Even if he breaks slowly again in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the expected modest pace should allow Baeza to stay in touch with the field and rally for a competitive finish.

Selections
1st: Phileas Fogg
2nd: Forever Young
3rd: Baeza

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Jockey Club Gold Cup?

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