In telling its story, North American Thoroughbred racing has long understood the value of information.
After decades of gathering the best information on breeding and racing, in 2009 the industry added consistent reporting of equine injuries that has paved the way for a dramatic reduction of equine racing fatalities.
Knowing the importance of information in telling the industry's story, making improvements, and targeting resources, The Jockey Club is conducting a massive effort in collecting data on off-track Thoroughbreds.
In his introduction to The Jockey Club's fall newsletter, chairman Everett Dobson notes some of the highlights as initial research has concluded. One early discovery that encourages further efforts: The clearest pattern in the data is that horses stay visible when someone has a reason to keep track of them.
He also noted:
- About half of the horses we register fall out of our records (about 48% of each foal crop, or about 38% once we adjust for typical mortality). That doesn't mean those horses are in trouble. It means we can't see them, and we can't make good decisions without that information.
- This is mostly a reporting gap. When we asked owners directly through our traceability survey, 92% could tell us where their horse was.
- The gap opens when a horse leaves racing, and it is concentrated. Twenty tracks account for more than half of the horses of which we lose track. HISA-covered tracks keep about 25% more horses on the record than non-HISA tracks.
- The Thoroughbred Incentive Program is our strongest window into life after racing. About 26,600 horses born from 2008-2023 hold a T.I.P. number. That makes our Thoroughbred Incentive Program the largest record we have of horses starting second careers, about 2 1/2 times the aftercare intake records. T.I.P. adds about 2,000 horses a year, which constitutes roughly half of all documented placements. Its reach keeps growing: about 9.5% of recent mature foal crops hold a T.I.P. number, up from 6.5% of the 2008 crop.
- Purse is the strongest signal on if a horse will continue to be traced. A horse whose last race carried a purse under $10,000 is about nine times as likely to drop off the record as one whose last race paid $200,000 or more (64% vs. 7%).
- Race type matters too. Horses whose last start was a maiden claiming race go unrecorded 64% of the time, compared with only 22% for horses whose last start was a stakes race.
- Being claimed actually helps. A horse claimed in its final start is far less likely to disappear than an unclaimed horse in the same race. Someone just paid for that horse. The real risk is the claiming horse nobody claimed.
- Breeding value keeps horses on the record. Mares stay visible far more often than males (43% vs. 66% unrecorded), largely because many go on to breeding careers. Geldings are the highest-risk group: nearly three in four drop off the record after racing.
- Pedigree and sales history help. Only 6% of grade 1 winners are unaccounted for. Offspring of commercially active sires and horses that sold at auction are also much easier to trace.
- These patterns let us score every horse at its last start. The highest-risk group drops off the record about four times as often as the lowest (78% vs. 20%). This means we can reach out before a horse leaves the system instead of searching for it afterward. Our aftercare partners and T.I.P. together reach about 3,400 to 4,300 of the 13,000 to 15,500 horses that leave racing each year. Closing that gap is where we will focus.
A synthesis of the data so far and annual updates will allow progress to be tracked.
