1. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
Having scored in the Feb. 14 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in his 3-year-old debut, Paladin vaults to the top of the Derby Dozen, climbing from third. This win, his third in as many starts, produced his best effort from a visual perspective and relative to the clock and speed figures. He ran down a loose-on-the-lead Chip Honcho, showing tactical speed to grab a forward position and the necessary kick to outlast that one over 1 1/8 miles. Combined with another stakes win last year in the Remsen Stakes (G2), he is now twice proven at 1 1/8 miles, and the 1 1/4-mile trip of the Derby figures to be right in his comfort zone.
2. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox
Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
This colt, unraced since the fall, dips to second because his stakes win in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs doesn't appear on par with Paladin's Risen Star triumph. Further Ado won the Kentucky Jockey Club by 1 3/4 lengths over Universe, who, by a simple measuring stick, was most recently fourth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths in the Risen Star. Most of the other Kentucky Jockey Club runners have been average at best in follow-up starts, with the exception of third-place Soldier N Diplomat, subsequent runner-up in the Southwest Stakes (G2). Still, let's not forget that Further Ado delivered in that initial stakes race, just as he had in his only other route, when he scampered to a 20-length win at Keeneland Oct. 10.
3. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
Check the top Beyer Speed Figures from 3-year-olds this year, and you'll find his name in the 1-2 spots. He ran a 98 Beyer in capturing the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park after posting a 97 a start before in a 7-furlong allowance optional claimer there in kicking off his 3-year-old season. Paladin is a little bit down on the list, having run a 93 Beyer in the Risen Star. Equibase Speed Figures are not in agreement, with Nearly getting a 90 and 92 in his two outings at 3, compared to a 93 ESF from Paladin in the Risen Star (and a 96 in the Remsen in December at age 2). Figures aside, this colt is obviously quite good, having rattled off three in a row after a debut sixth at Aqueduct Racetrack last fall. The March 28 Florida Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream is next.
4. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
Similar to Nearly, he was off the board in his first start—racing in a 6-furlong race Oct. 4 at Keeneland—before noticably improving with experience and distance. He dusted maidens going 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs Nov. 1 and then romped in the Jan. 3 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream over a mile, drawing away to score by 6 3/4 lengths with a closing furlong in :12.87. Top to bottom, the Mucho Macho Man was relatively soft compared to other 3-year-old stakes this year, but Commandment won it the right way. Now comes a test around two turns, likely in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream.
5. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
On the heels of a victory in the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park, his stock is on the rise. In the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed Feb. 15, bettors pegged him as the fifth choice among individual betting interests at 19-1 odds. Why the optimism? He blew past horses through the stretch in the Southwest, giving every impression of a horse who should relish additional ground. That wasn't his only fine race, either. He is 2-2-0 in four starts for Preakness Stakes (G1)- and Belmont Stakes (G1)-winning trainer Mark Casse, who is in pursuit of his first Derby victory.
6. Brant
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Gun Runner—Tynan, by Liam's Map
Breeder: PTK (KY)
Along with Paladin and Further Ado, he is the third Gun Runner colt in the top half dozen of these rankings. One of the top young sires in North America, Gun Runner commands a $250,000 fee at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky. It seems only a matter of time before he sires a Kentucky Derby winner. Sierra Leone came close to giving his sire that achievement two years ago when he was second, beaten a nose, in the 2024 Derby. Brant, a $3 million purchase at 2, went 2-0-1 in three starts last year at 2—romping on debut, taking the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and setting the pace before fading to third in his lone route in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar.
7. Litmus Test
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Baffert
Nyquist —Study Hard, by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Machmer Hall (KY)
Brant and Litmus Test, fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, are the two top-performing runners from that race still on the Derby trail. Victorious Ted Noffey and runner-up Mr. A. P. are sidelined due to physical setbacks. While Litmus Test did not run as well as Brant in the Juvenile, he still was competitive, racing within a few lengths off the pace throughout and making up a little ground to be 1 3/4 lengths behind at the finish, just a neck behind his Baffert-trained stablemate Brant. Litmus Test followed that race up with a perfect-trip victory in the Dec. 13 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), finishing his freshman season with a 2-0-1 record in five starts.
8. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Pletcher
Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Though not in action last week, he advances a couple of positions in the rankings, his form flattered by the Risen Star victory from Paladin. This colt finished in front of that rival when they met as maidens Oct. 17, only to be demoted to second for interference, then was a wide runner-up to Paladin in the Remsen, checking in 2 lengths behind him. This year at 3, Renegade was a decisive winner against an ordinary group in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, pulling away to win by 3 3/4 lengths, again with another wide trip.
9. Plutarch
Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Tabor/Baffert
Into Mischief—Stellar Wind, by Curlin
Breeder: Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt (KY)
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner is the third Derby Dozen horse for Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer and winner of two Triple Crowns. Besides that stakes victory, this one has pedigree power being by Into Mischief, who has sired three Kentucky Derby winners, and out of the champion mare Stellar Wind. Plutarch seems to be a developing type with upside. The aggressive ride to get him into a forward position in the Lewis seemed a difference maker, keeping him within range of front-running and eventual second-place Intrepido in a slow-paced race that suited horses being near the lead.
10. Blackout Time
Owner/Trainer: Brookdale Racing, Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing/Kenny McPeek
Not This Time—Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality
Breeder: Newstead (KY)
After recording his initial works at Fair Grounds this winter, he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00 at Oaklawn Park Feb. 11 in preparation for an intended start in the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2) there. He needed a 5-furlong workout there and satisfactory test results to work his way off the California Horse Racing Board's vet's list, a listing of ineligible-to-compete runners after being a regulatory scratch from last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. He will return to Fair Grounds in the middle of this week and have his final pre-Rebel breeze this weekend with stakes-winning older horse Gould's Gold, according to Oaklawn publicist Robert Yates. Blackout Time showed his class last year with a runner-up finish between Ted Noffey and Litmus Test in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
11. Canaletto
Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith/Brown
Into Mischief—Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Speaking with BloodHorse following the Risen Star, Brown seemed to be leaning toward running this dominant Jan. 25 debut winner back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream rather than await the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Recall that the Fountain of Youth had been the comeback target for Ted Noffey before he was declared off the Derby trail, so that race is not deemed as challenging by rival trainers. Sometimes, however, a key defection like that can lead to multiple trainers having the same "let's capitalize" mindset, causing a deep field.
12. Golden Tempo
Owner/Trainer: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable/Cherie DeVaux
Curlin—Carrumba, by Bernardini
Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables (KY)
Though he showed in the Risen Star, he disappointed by never drawing within reach of the leaders and finishing 6 lengths back at the finish, hence his slide to the bottom of the rankings. A closer, he was able to defeat maidens Dec. 20 while sprinting and took the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes (G3) behind a fast tempo, but the pace and flow of the Risen Star didn't suit him when Chip Honcho raced uncontested on the lead. Paladin, who had the tactical speed to sit close, was the only horse able to cut into the margin of the leader. The 20-horse scramble of the Derby usually leads to a quick pace that is more likely to suit Golden Tempo, though he will need racing luck with many horses to pass.
