1. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
Could this 3-for-3 colt, who won the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots to begin his 3-year-old year, be the 3-year-old that ends the Derby jinx for horses that competed in the Remsen Stakes (G2) as 2-year-olds? No horse from the Remsen has won the Derby since Thunder Gulch in 1995. It's been a legitimate grade 2 in recent years. Remsen winners Mo Donegal and Dornoch both won the Belmont Stakes (G1), respectively doing so in the final leg of the Triple Crown in 2022 and 2024. And Sierra Leone , runner-up to Dornoch in the 2023 Remsen, was a nose second-place finisher in the Derby, and later was honored as champion 3-year-old male of 2024 after his victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
WATCH: King Analyzes Race Replays of the Fountain of Youth, Rebel
2. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
Having passed his first two-turn test in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, he rises from fourth to second in the rankings. Commandment was gritty in victory and strong on the gallop out when given a nudge by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who seemed to test how much his mount had left in the tank. Commandment raced 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.33, earning a 99 Equibase Speed Figure and an even better 101 Beyer Speed Figure. The latter number is the highest posted by a 3-year-old in 2026. Additionally, he is proven at Churchill Downs and exits an important prep in the Fountain of Youth that has produced 15 Derby winners, including Sovereignty, who was victorious in both races last year.
3. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Cox
Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
After breaking his maiden by 20 lengths in his first route at Keeneland last fall, expectations were so high in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs that he won the race by 1 3/4 lengths, and still some observers were let down by his performance. He was workmanlike in victory and regressed on speed figures. So his return in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) will tell us a lot about his Derby credentials. With his figure "bounce" out of the way in the Kentucky Jockey Club, can he run back to his numbers from his maiden win? The expectation is that he can.
4. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
A day before the other Florida-based 3-year-olds raced in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he breezed Feb. 27 for the March 28 Florida Derby (G1) with an easy half-mile in :50.17 at Palm Beach Downs. It is no surprise that Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner targeted for the Florida Derby. It's a grade 1, stallion-making race, and Nearly has been unbeatable at Gulfstream Park. The Florida Derby has produced 26 Kentucky Derby (G1) winners, more than any other prep.
5. Chief Wallabee
Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott
Constitution —A La Lucie by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)
Though he fell a neck short of Commandment in the Fountain of Youth, expect his race to be top rated on the Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph Figures exiting the race, owing to his wider trip. He did carry a bit less weight, another factor in the figures for those services. Regardless, this was an outstanding effort from a horse who had made only one prior start in a 7-furlong maiden race and gave up seasoning to all of his rivals. If such a race doesn't prove too demanding so early into his career, he has the potential to be among the best in the division.
6. Class President
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC/Pletcher
Uncle Mo—Top Quality, by Quality Road
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Collared in his first two-turn race in the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, he was gallant by battling back to win by a nose after being passed between calls in the stretch. The win earned him 50 qualifying points toward the Derby, assuring him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate—though he'll presumably make one more stop on his way to Churchill Downs, likely in pursuit of a grade 1. His 1 1/16-mile Rebel time of 1:43.21 was .31 faster than Explora's clocking of 1:43.52 in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies an hour earlier. His time earned him a 99 Equibase Speed Figure and a 91 Beyer Speed Figure.
7. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
With the leaders in his sights in the Rebel Stakes and angled out into the clear, this late-closing runner appeared to have his rivals at his mercy, but Class President proved a stubborn foe. Though Silent Tactic poked his head in front between calls in the stretch, Class President battled back to prevail. Despite the loss, the Rebel was still a high-quality performance from Silent Tactic, just as strong as his earlier Southwest Stakes (G3) victory, as reflected by the strung-out field behind him.
8. Brant
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Gun Runner—Tynan, by Liam's Map
Breeder: PTK (KY)
He is one of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's two entrants in the March 7 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, the other being debut sprint winner Potente. After scoring on debut at Del Mar last summer, he added the Del Mar Futurity (G1) before a third-place finish in the Oct. 31 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) there. Though this flashy gray weakened late to be third, take note that he is the top-performing 2-year-old from the Juvenile still left on the Derby trail. Victorious Ted Noffey and runner-up Mr. A. P. are sidelined due to physical setbacks.
9. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Pletcher
Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
After winning the Rebel with Class President, Pletcher will likely take aim at the March 28 Arkansas Derby (G1) with this colt, who won the Sam F. Davis Stakes with authority in the kickoff to his 3-year-old campaign. Pletcher prefers to give his stakes horses more than a month between starts and tends to avoid consecutive races following long-distance travel. The Hall of Fame trainer has this one on the same kind of work schedule as Nearly, opting for moderate half-mile breezes with their races still almost four weeks out.
10. Canaletto
Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith/Brown
Into Mischief—Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
A showdown with Further Ado looms in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Though that rival has the benefit of experience and two-turn seasoning over him, this horse seems equivalent in talent. Canaletto's Jan. 25 maiden victory in his lone start over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream was a beauty. He showed natural speed, settled kindly to let two rivals come inside him down the backstretch, then left them in the dust when called upon down the stretch. Everything about his race suggested stakes ability and the potential to handle longer races.
11. Reagan's Honor
Owner/Trainer: West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo, and Gabriel Duignan/Cherie DeVaux
Honor A. P. —Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: David Ingordo & Jerome S. Moss (KY)
In addition to posting a near-record time of 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.02 in winning a Feb. 19 allowance at Fair Grounds, he ran a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The flow of the Fair Grounds allowance race suited his front-running style, however. Though the fractions of the race were lively, the horses that were 1-2-3 early finished in those same positions at the finish. A throwdown with top-ranked Paladin is next in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
12. Blackout Time
Owner/Trainer: BR Thoroughbreds, Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing/Kenny McPeek
Not This Time—Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality
Breeder: Newstead (KY)
Though he disappointed in the Rebel Stakes by retreating to fourth, he clings to the final spot in this space—ahead of Rebel show finisher Litmus Test, Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Iron Honor, and fast maiden graduates Cherokee Nation and Emerging Market—due to what this colt did last year at 2 by running second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in October. Out since that race and given time off after being a regulatory scratch from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Blackout Time likely needed the Rebel to advance his fitness.
