Saturday's 151st running of the $2 million Preakness (G1) is unusual by several historical standards.
One, the 1 3/16-mile race is taking place at Laurel Park instead of Pimlico. Two, the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner--Golden Tempo--is skipping the race. Three, a huge 14-horse field has turned out. Four, there's only one Grade 1 winner in the field, and only one entrant has won a graded stakes this year.
This year's Preakness might be light on proven stars, but it's an absolutely fantastic betting race. It's difficult to predict who start as the betting favorite, let alone who will win. The field is a mix of Kentucky Derby starters, Road to the Kentucky Derby alumni, and up-and-comers trying the graded stakes ranks for the first time. It's a fascinating race, and I'm excited to see who comes out on top.
On paper at least, this Preakness field is absolutely packed with speed. There are so many pace players, I can't imagine a scenario where the early tempo is anything but hot. Consider the following:
* #1 Taj Mahal (5-1) led all the way to win the Miracle Wood S. and Federico Tesio S. In the latter race, he led by 10 lengths after half a mile.
* #3 Crupper (30-1) was never more than a head off the lead when taking the Bathhouse Row S.
* #4 Robusta (30-1) broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion and finished second by a head in the San Felipe (G2) when employing pace-tracking tactics.
* #6 Chip Honcho (5-1) led all the way in his maiden win, and he set the pace when finishing second by half a length in the Risen Star (G2).
* #7 The Hell We Did (15-1) pressed the pace when finishing second in the Lexington (G3).
* #9 Iron Honor (9-2) was never more than half a length off the pace when winning the Gotham (G3).
* #10 Napoleon Solo (8-1) set intense fractions of :22.53, :44.24, and 1:07.88 to win the Champagne (G1) last fall.
* #11 Corona de Oro (30-1) led all the way to break his maiden, and he set the pace when finishing third in the Lexington.
* #13 Great White (15-1) carved out the pace when fifth in the Blue Grass (G1) and utilized pace-tracking tactics to win the John Battaglia Memorial S.
* #14 Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) enters off back-to-back maiden special weight and $75,000 allowance optional claiming wins in which he dueled for the early lead.
That's 10 speed horses in a 14-horse field. Four of them are drawn between posts 10-14. Surely the Preakness is going to produce a mad dash to the first turn, which risks burning out the speed horses and allowing a late runner to prevail?
There are no certainties in horse racing, but I'm anticipating a destructive pace in the Preakness, so I'll favor a pair of late runners exiting the Kentucky Derby: #2 Ocelli (6-1) and #12 Incredibolt (5-1).
Three lengths separated Ocelli and Incredibolt at the finish of the Kentucky Derby, with Ocelli snagging third place and Incredibolt checking in sixth. Ocelli's performance was eye-catching; after launching a wide rally around the far turn, he took the lead inside the eighth pole, only to get outkicked by Golden Tempo and Renegade in the closing strides. In contrast, Incredibolt never looked like a winner down the lane, but steadily passed rivals to finish only four lengths away from first place.
Even though Ocelli ran better in the Derby, I'm siding with Incredibolt to win the Preakness. The reason? The top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, including Ocelli, dropped far off the early pace, even disconnecting from the main pack. Incredibolt, in contrast, stayed in touch with the pack throughout, racing about five lengths closer to the early pace than Ocelli.
The Derby pace wasn't extreme, but splits of :22.86, :46.44, and 1:10.90 nevertheless produced a pace meltdown that saw horses closing from between 10th place and 18th place sweep six of the top seven finishing positions at the wire. Even though Incredibolt dropped nearly eight lengths off the early pace, I wonder if he was too close to the tempo, at least compared to Ocelli.
It's worth noting Incredibolt finished 6 3/4 lengths ahead of Ocelli when they ran first and sixth in the Virginia Derby seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Ocelli has improved a lot since then, but I believe Incredibolt has a path to reclaim his advantage with the right trip in the Preakness. At Churchill Downs last fall, Incredibolt launched a last-to-first rally to win the Street Sense (G3) in eye-catching fashion, and a return to deep-closing tactics in this pace-packed Preakness field could potentially unlock a career-best performance.
Beyond Incredibolt and Ocelli, the above-mentioned Gotham winner Iron Honor is my third choice. Although he faltered to finish seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) last time out, he endured a wide trip and got caught up in some significant bumping heading into the first turn. Dropping blinkers for the Preakness should help Iron Honor relax and possibly avoid getting burned up in the early pace, setting the stage for a rebound under two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat.
I'll round out my top four with #5 Talkin (20-1), runner-up in the Champagne (G1) last fall and most recently a distant third in the Blue Grass (G1). A stoutly bred son of Good Magic out of a Tiznow mare, Talkin has shown the ability to rally from behind and could enjoy a favorable setup if he employs late-running tactics in the Preakness.
Selections
1st: Incredibolt
2nd: Ocelli
3rd: Iron Honor
4th: Talkin
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 151st Preakness?
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