Equibase Ratings Flatter Renegade, Commandment

Equibase Ratings of this year's United States-based Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls have Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade in a tie for the highest rating at 115 each.

That tie at the top matches much of the prerace handicapping to date and it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if that pair goes off as the top two choices in this year's 1 1/4-mile classic May 2 at Churchill Downs. 

After rallying from eighth to post a visually impressive 4-length victory in the Arkansas Derby for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Renegade figures to be favored in the Kentucky Derby while Commandment, off of four straight wins for trainer Brad Cox, is the likely second choice after prevailing over The Puma and Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby (G1). 

The Florida Derby has produced 26 Kentucky Derby winners, the most of any prep. Five of those winners have arrived since 2013. At the other end of the Derby prep spectrum in recent years is the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). While it has produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners—the second most of any prep—it hasn't seen a starter cash in at Churchill since Street Sense  in 2007 and hasn't seen a winner go on to Derby glory since Strike the Gold in 1991. 

But Spendthrift Farm's Further Ado certainly made his case as a top Kentucky Derby contender by winning this year's Blue Grass by 11 lengths. In securing a third win in his past four starts, Further Ado improved his rating to 113—fourth best among this year's Kentucky Derby hopefuls based in the U.S.

Unveiled in October with races at Santa Anita Park that used the ratings to determine eligibility, and tweaked a bit earlier this month in an effort to improve their accuracy, Equibase Ratings are a single, performance-based number that summarizes a horse's ability relative to performance while considering the quality of competition and race conditions. It is designed to be transparent, unbiased, and easy to compare across distances, surfaces, and tracks.

The Equibase Rating is calculated through an algorithm that factors in race records, performance analytics, and historical data from racetracks. Last month's tweaks addressed ratings for maiden winners and ratings tied to class-level (graded stakes, stakes, allowance, claiming levels) performance.

Horses can improve their numbers as they compete. The rating uses an accomplishment-based par framework that establishes a rating anchor for each class band. The par represents the rating a horse achieves on the day it wins at that level. From that point, the rating moves dynamically based on subsequent performance, improving with continued success at that tier or above and vice versa compared to the standard. The par is not a floor or a ceiling, it is a benchmark.

In looking at the possible Derby horses rated at 110 or higher, Intrepido (114) largely secured his big number with a grade 1 win at 2 but is 0-for-2 in starts this year. He's on the Derby bubble.

Potente and Chief Wallabee (both 112) have attained their ratings through steady performance, including respective grade 1 placings in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Florida Derby.

After a top tier of horses at 110 or higher, there are eight runners tied at 91. Some of these runners have placed in grade 1 races, while others such as Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt will make their grade 1 debuts in the Kentucky Derby.

Horses that perform consistently at or above their established class level will sustain or exceed their par. Horses that perform below it will drift downward at a measured rate that reflects genuine performance change.